Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble
A 16‑model ISMIP6 ensemble projects <30 cm SLE by 2100 but up to 4.4 m by 2300 (6.9 m with ice‑shelf collapse); retreat timing varies while propagation rates are consistent, and model choice remains the leading uncertainty.
Sep 1, 2024
