Disentangling uncertainty in ISMIP6 Antarctic sub-shelf melting and 2300 sea level rise projections
ISMIP6 Antarctic 2300 melt and dynamic-sensitivity factors explain most ensemble sea-level spread and highlight Amundsen, Filchner-Ronne, Ross, Aurora, and Wilkes basins as most responsive.
Oct 14, 2025
Subglacial water amplifies Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise
Subglacial water flow strengthens ice–ocean interactions and substantially increases Antarctica’s projected contribution to future sea‑level rise; results highlight the need to include hydrology in projections.
Jan 1, 2025
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 model ensemble
A 16‑model ISMIP6 ensemble projects <30 cm SLE by 2100 but up to 4.4 m by 2300 (6.9 m with ice‑shelf collapse); retreat timing varies while propagation rates are consistent, and model choice remains the leading uncertainty.
Sep 1, 2024
Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations
Quantifies how grounding-line melt parameterizations control long‑term evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin and its sea‑level contribution; provides practical guidance for choosing melt schemes in projections.
Jan 1, 2024
Thermal structure of the Amery Ice Shelf from borehole observations and simulations
Open-borehole observations and 3D/1D Elmer/Ice simulations reveal a near‑isothermal basal marine‑ice layer and strong basal temperature gradients; we quantify how basal mass balance patterns control shelf rheology and dynamics.
Jan 1, 2022